Anyone have solid resources for translating subsurface uncertainty into the metrics execs care about? Example: frontier sandstone with P10/P90 net pay 6–24 m, CoS 0.3, ~$85M FID capex, 9% WACC — looking for templates or tools (decision tree + Monte Carlo via @RISK/Crystal Ball/Python) that tie P10–P90 to NPV/IRR, portfolio covariance, and VOI in a board-ready way.
Start with risked NPV tornado from ‘6–24 m’, 9% WACC; run VOI in @RISK.
, boards glaze over P10–P90 — convert your 6–24 m straight to cash and show a one-pager: chance‑weighted NPV at 9% with CoS=0.3 and the portfolio delta vs your current frontier, then a VOI slide from toggling an appraisal node on/off. If you need plug‑and‑play, this @RISK example is easy to adapt to the ~$85M FID and adds IRR/decision tree hooks: https://www.palisade.com/downloads/ExampleSpreadsheets/. Do you already have a price/cost shock matrix for covariance, or want a quick Python stub?